Drake Passage

The Drake Passage is the stretch of the Southern Ocean between Cape Horn and the South Shetland Islands, about 510 miles (820 km) wide.¹ Nearly every Antarctica trip from South America crosses it, by sea or by air: 98% of tourist voyages operate in the Antarctic Peninsula region, most of them sailing from Ushuaia in Argentina.² The answers below on how rough it gets are built on our own analysis of 16 years of hourly wave, wind and temperature data from the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis.

Why is the Drake Passage so rough?

The Drake is rough because wind blows hard across it almost all the time, over deep open water that carries the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In our analysis of ERA5 for 2010 to 2025, the average wind along the ship track was 17 to 19 knots in every month from November to March.⁴ That is Force 5 on the Beaufort scale, a "fresh breeze" that builds moderate waves with many whitecaps.⁵ Norway's accident investigators add that winds strong enough to make waves break are common in the passage for much of the year.¹⁹

The current funnels through the same gap. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current flows east all the way around Antarctica, and moored instruments across the passage from 2007 to 2011 measured 173.3 million cubic meters of water per second moving through it, 30% more than the benchmark figure used in climate models.³ Several major ocean fronts, the boundaries between water masses, are packed into the passage; a 2023 seabird study calls it "one of the most dynamic stretches of ocean on the planet".¹

Full gales are less frequent than the reputation suggests, at least in the model. From November to March, wind of 34 knots or more (Force 8) blew in about 1% of hours at any one point on the route, but about one two-day crossing in ten met at least an hour of it: one in 17 in January, one in seven in March and one in five in October.⁴ ERA5 smooths local extremes, so treat these figures as conservative.

How rough is the Drake Passage?

A typical peak-season crossing is "rough" to "very rough" on the World Meteorological Organization's sea-state scale: significant wave height averages about 11 ft (3.3 m), and more than half of crossings meet 13 ft (4 m) or more.⁴ We modeled all 2,419 two-day southbound crossings that could have started between November and March from 2010 to 2025, using hourly ERA5 data at three points on the route, and graded the worst sea each one met on the WMO scale.⁷ The model keeps a fixed two-day schedule: it cannot wait out a storm or steer around one.

Significant wave height is the average of the highest third of waves, not the biggest wave you will see. About 15% of waves equal or exceed it, the highest tenth can be 25 to 30% higher, and roughly once an hour a single wave arrives at nearly twice that height.⁸ So in a very rough 16 ft (5 m) sea, expect the odd wave approaching 33 ft (10 m), which is how a crossing can produce 30 ft wave stories without the sea ever being graded "high".

The worst hour in the model at any single point during the November to March season was a significant wave height of 37 ft (11.4 m), reached on December 13, 2010 and again on February 12, 2022.⁴ ERA5 is a gridded reconstruction that smooths local extremes, so read these figures as the odds for a season, not a forecast for your sailing.

Which month is the calmest in the Drake Passage?

January is the calmest month to cross the Drake, with the lowest average waves and the fewest crossings that meet 20 ft (6 m) seas, while December gives the best odds of a crossing that stays moderate all the way. October is the roughest month of the season, with November, March and April close behind.⁴

July's figures rest on fewer crossings, because winter sea ice leaves gaps in the wave record at the southern end of the route.⁴

Two results stand out. October, when the season's first ships sail, is rougher on average than midwinter July, and March is closer to November than to January: nearly one crossing in five meets 20 ft seas, against one in 25 in January. If the crossing worries you most, choose a trip that crosses in December or January; our guide to the best time to visit Antarctica covers what else that choice changes.

What is the weather like in the Drake Passage?

Cool, gray and windy rather than freezing. In our ERA5 analysis, air temperature over the route averaged 37°F (2.8°C) in November and 40°F (4.5°C) in January, ranging in January from about 44°F (6.5°C) just south of Cape Horn to 36°F (2.4°C) north of the South Shetlands. Only about 4% of November to March hours were below freezing, but the steady 17 to 19 knot wind makes the deck feel much colder.⁴ For your own sailing, the forecast a few days out tells you more than any average.

Is the Drake usually "Drake Lake" or "Drake Shake"?

Usually neither. On our numbers, a true Drake Lake, with seas no worse than moderate the whole way, comes on about 6% of peak-season crossings, and a Drake Shake with 20 ft (6 m) seas on about 12%; the other 82% are rough or very rough. Claims that a quarter to a third of crossings are calm do not fit the data even with a looser test: only 17% of November to March crossings kept the route-average wave height under 10 ft (3 m) throughout.⁴ Expect two lively days each way, and count a calm crossing as luck.

How long does it take to cross the Drake Passage?

About two days each way by ship, or about two hours by plane. From Ushuaia, ships run down the Beagle Channel and past Cape Horn to the South Shetland Islands, about 565 nautical miles (650 miles, 1,046 km) by our measurement of the usual route: 40 hours at 14 knots, 47 hours at 12 knots.⁴

Itineraries budget for it. Quark Expeditions gives days 3 and 4 of its 11-day Antarctic Explorer to the southbound crossing and days 9 and 10 to the return, which leaves days 5 to 8 in Antarctica.⁹

By air, charter flights from Punta Arenas, Chile, to King George Island cover about 770 miles (1,239 km).⁴ Aurora Expeditions puts the flight at about one hour and 45 minutes.¹⁰ Quark's itinerary calls it a two-hour flight in one place and a three-hour flight in another.¹¹ Lindblad Expeditions flies from Puerto Natales, Chile, instead, on what it calls a two-hour direct flight.²⁴

How deep is the Drake Passage?

Mostly 11,500 to 13,500 ft (3,500 to 4,100 m) under the usual ship route. We sampled the GEBCO seafloor grid at 31 points on a straight line from Cape Horn to the South Shetlands: the deepest sample was about 15,500 ft (4,736 m), and the seabed rises to the continental shelf within about 30 miles (50 km) of each coast.⁶ These are depths under the ship track, not a survey of the whole passage.

Can you fly over the Drake Passage instead?

Yes. Air-cruise trips fly you from southern Chile, usually Punta Arenas, to King George Island and board you there. In 2025-26, IAATO members ran 126 of them with 11,764 passengers, using 170 southbound flights into Chile's Teniente Rodolfo Marsh airstrip, against 401 sail-both-ways voyages with 71,530 passengers.²

Flying buys back travel days, not time in Antarctica. Quark's sailing and flying versions of its classic trip both give you four days on the Peninsula; the flying one is three days shorter and costs more.

These are Quark's published brochure fares in US dollars, as listed on October 14, 2026; the cheapest sailing cabin was already sold out, and Quark was showing promo codes worth 5 to 15% on these departures.²³ At brochure fares, flying costs $4,800 more for three fewer days, about $2,460 a day against $1,350. Aurora's Fly the Drake from Punta Arenas starts at $25,395 per person twin share for its January 13, 2027 departure, or $19,706 after discounts (regular $21,895) for January 10, 2028.¹⁰ Fly-sail trips split the difference: Aurora's 9-day Antarctic Explorer Express crosses by sea in one direction only, from $20,095 per person twin share for January 2027.¹²

Flying is not always dearer. Lindblad's 8-day Antarctica Direct, which flies from Puerto Natales, Chile, starts at $12,600 per person including the required $3,000 flights on November 25, 2026, while its 12-day Voyage to Antarctica, sailing both ways from Ushuaia, starts at $19,000 on November 26, 2026.²⁴²⁵²⁶ Per day the two cost about the same, but both of those lowest-price cabins were sold out when we checked on October 14, 2026: the cheapest open cabins cost $14,060 on the fly-cruise and $27,252 on the sea voyage.²⁵

Weather is the catch. Aurora says a clear sky with perfect visibility is needed to land on King George Island and applies a contingency plan when flights cannot go; on the way home, if the flight cannot leave, you stay on the ship until it can.¹⁰

Our pick: fly if you are short on leave or get badly seasick and can live with a possible weather delay; sail if you want the widest choice of ships, dates and fares, since sail-both-ways voyages outnumber air-cruises three to one. Price both versions at the line you like, because flying costs more than sailing at Quark and less at Lindblad. The fly or sail the Drake guide compares every option, while the cheapest way to Antarctica and what an Antarctica trip costs cover the money.

How do you avoid seasickness on the Drake Passage?

Start medication before the ship leaves the Beagle Channel, not after you feel ill. The CDC says motion sickness drugs work best taken before exposure, and for trips longer than six hours it recommends a scopolamine patch for moderate to intense motion, or meclizine or dimenhydrinate for milder motion.¹³

A patch lasts 72 hours, longer than the crossing, so one applied the morning you board covers the trip south. The CDC suggests trying a dose before you travel, which also shows you how drowsy it makes you; ask your doctor, since names and prescription rules vary by country.¹³

On board, watch the horizon and keep away from the bow and other high-motion spots. Your body also adapts with time, which the CDC calls the most effective countermeasure of all, though a slow one.¹³ HX' FAQ on "the Drake Shake" suggests medication, wristbands and rest, and it sells tablets on board for €1 each;¹⁴ given the CDC's verdict on wristbands, rely on the drugs.

Do ship size and stabilizers make the Drake smoother?

Somewhat, but no ship removes the motion, and big ships pay for their size in time ashore. Stabilizers are fins that counter rolling; Ponant says Le Commandant Charcot uses anti-roll stabilizers in open water.¹⁵ The X-BOW, an inverted bow, is designed to reduce pitching and slamming in rough seas, according to its designer, Ulstein.¹⁶ Aurora's 130-passenger Sylvia Earle has one,¹⁷ as does Lindblad's 138-guest National Geographic Endurance, which Lindblad calls fully stabilized.¹⁸ We know of no independent study comparing how expedition ships ride in the Drake, so treat ride-quality claims as the builders' own.

Size is no guarantee. On November 29, 2022, a breaking wave hit Viking Polaris south-east of Cape Horn on its way back to Ushuaia, shattering seven cabin windows; one passenger died and eight were injured. Norway's safety investigators found the seas within the ship's design conditions but the windows too weak for a breaking wave, and recommended reinforcing them on Viking Polaris and its sister, the 378-guest Viking Octantis.¹⁹²⁰ We could not find any public confirmation that this has been done.

Bigger ships also land less: the Antarctic Treaty's visitor guidelines say ships with more than 500 passengers shall not make landings, and no more than 100 passengers may be ashore at a site at once, fewer where a site's guideline says so,²¹ so a 300-passenger ship lands in shifts. For the Drake, a stabilized ship, medication and a January crossing matter more than size.

Is the Drake Passage safe, and has a cruise ship ever sunk there?

Tens of thousands of people cross it safely every season, and we found no official accident report of a passenger ship sinking in the Drake itself. In 2025-26 alone, IAATO members ran 401 expedition voyages to the Antarctic Peninsula region with 71,530 passengers, plus 15 voyages by large cruise-only ships carrying 27,217 people who saw Antarctica from the deck.²

It is not risk-free. The best-known loss nearby, the Explorer, hit ice and sank in the Bransfield Strait, south of the Drake near the South Shetland Islands, on November 23, 2007, in about 4,300 ft (1,300 m) of water. It was on an 18-day round trip from Ushuaia, and all 100 passengers and 54 crew abandoned ship without loss of life and were rescued by the Nordnorge.²² The most serious recent incident we found in the Drake itself was weather damage, not a sinking: the Viking Polaris window failure described above.¹⁹ We found no authoritative count of historic Drake shipwrecks, so we give none.

What wildlife can you see crossing the Drake Passage?

Seabirds, above all: a long-running survey recorded 50 seabird species on crossings between January and March from 1994 to 2009.¹ The mix changes as you cross the fronts. Black-browed albatrosses and southern giant petrels dominate on the South American side, while cape petrels and northern giant petrels take over near Antarctica, where gentoo penguins sometimes turn up at sea.¹ Bring binoculars and spend some of the sea days on deck between lectures.